Predicting one future can make an organisation fragile when cost, law or connectivity changes. A scenario helps when it leads to a revisable decision.
The decision to examine
Choose two uncertainties and build four short cases. Give each an early action and a signal to monitor. Do not attach probabilities without a data method.
Worked example
Hypothetical factors: stable or intermittent connectivity, and low or high cost. A paper activity and small database may remain useful across all four cases.
From idea to practice
- Describe the problem as a need, not a product name.
- Specify evidence needed before a decision and who reviews it.
- Test a non-personal example and log failures as well as successes.
- State whether to continue, improve or stop and why.
Your exercise
Draw a 2×2 matrix and write a decision useful in several cases, plus a signal that would change it.
Review rubric
A useful answer identifies a context, checkable evidence, a boundary and an owner for the next step. If it fits any organisation unchanged, add a detail specific to the case. This is a learning rubric, not automatic marking or official assessment.
Further reading: Policy Navigator — OECD.AI · Living repository · Checked: 8 October 2026
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Institutional DJAIRI material prepared with AI assistance. Learning examples are hypothetical; analysis and recommendations are Mustanef’s. Citing a source does not imply partnership or endorsement.